MARKET NEWS

Food Inflation News:



UK Inflation rate stays at 3.8% but food costs continue to rise sharply

Prices in the UK rose by 3.8% in the 12 months to August, pushed up by steeply rising food prices. Food prices rose by 5.1%, spurred by global commodity prices and government policy.

The Bank of England are among economists who’ve suggested that measures such

as higher National Insurance Contributions and minimum wages may have added more than 1% to food prices, while adding to cost pressures elsewhere.

Hospitality industry on track to lose 111,000 jobs by next Budget

The UK hospitality industry is on course to have lost 111,000 jobs in just over a year by the next Budget on 26 November. The projection, based on the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), shows the damage done to the sector by government tax rises announced in the 2024 Autumn Statement.

The lowering of the employer NICs threshold in April has had the most impact, bringing 774,000 people working part-time and flexible jobs into the tax threshold for the first time.

ONS figures revealed that 10,963 hospitality jobs were lost in the last month. Following revisions to earlier ONS data, the total jobs lost in hospitality since the Budget now stands at 84,000 – this is 4% of all jobs in the sector and 55% of all jobs lost in the UK economy.

London restaurant openings hit eight-year high as prices soar

London has seen its highest number of new restaurant openings since 2017, despite

the industry facing a battleground of cost pressures.

According to data from restaurant guide Harden’s, 146 new venues launched in the

past 12 months. There were 65 reported closures, the lowest figure reported by the

guide for a decade. This resulted in a total of 81 net new openings, a figure only

surpassed in four years in Harden’s 35-year history.

Harden said the 2% growth in London’s population since 2023 and a boom in tourist

numbers may have helped the capital’s restaurant scene remain more resilient, but

he admitted the rosier picture may only be relevant to London and the figures

revealed nothing about the profitability of the restaurants.

Contract catering sales grow 8% year-on-year

Contract catering sales rose by 8% year-on-year between April and June 2025, outperforming most other sectors of hospitality.

These figures come from the Catering Tracker by CGA by NIQ, Bidfood and UK Hospitality, which aggregates sales from leading operators including Sodexo UK, Baxter Storey, Compass UK and Elior UK to produce quarterly reports.

In every quarter since mid-2021, the contract catering sector has posted growth. This year has been no different, with contract caterers delivering a 9.3% increase in the number of outlets and a 7.9% jump in MAT growth – sales over the last 12 months compared to the previous 12 months.

COMMODITIES REPORT

Fruit & Vegetables:

As the days cool, we are seeing beautiful autumn fruits and vegetables arriving on

the market including Squashes, Apples, Plums and Brassicas. Root vegetables are in their prime now.

It’s been a trickier story for Broccoli and Cauliflower. The warm, dry weather has

slowed things down for growers. On the upside, UK Kale, Savoy Cabbage, and leeks

are looking terrific this month and Tenderstem Broccoli is still going strong.

Fish & Seafood:

Typically, Autumn is the best season for most of our native species. The cooler waters provide excellent conditions for quality bivalve molluscs and most fish are outside of their spawning periods. This means that you will see the best quality at this time of year.

The whitefish market is still extremely volatile with demand currently outstripping supply. Sanctions on fish of Russian origin are impacting availability, with Russia historically accounting for 40% of global whitefish production. This is exacerbated by the recent recommendation from the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) and the Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group that

the 2026 Barents Sea cod quota is cut to 21% less than in last year. It is inevitable that prices will rise across all whitefish as all buyers seek out alternatives.

Salmon:

The recent tariffs imposed upon Norway by the USA of 15% could have far reaching

effects on salmon prices. The USA is responsible for circa 25% of global farmed salmon demand. The increased tariffs could significantly soften this where Norwegian fish are concerned, whilst Scottish salmon with a lower 10% tariff will be

in a stronger position in terms of export.

Consequently, we could be enjoying lower

salmon prices to the end of 2025.

Turkey:

Suppliers are warning that turkey pricing will be challenging this year. The number of birds are down 30% on last year and EU Turkey prices are already at record levels for this time of year, with prices surpassing where they were last Christmas. We recommend looking at the Christmas deals on offer and placing your orders early.

Pork:

With the continued high pricing on beef, pork is offering a much more economical alternative. The UK is a key producer of pork and we recommend speaking to your butcher when menu planning to see which cuts offer the best value.

Seasonal Recipe Suggestion

A rich frangipane with sweet, sharp, sticky plums hiding in its depths.

Plum Frangipane Tart

Serves 8

Ingredients:

Sweet pastry:

200g flour

100g cold salted butter

1 tbsp caster sugar

1 egg

For the filling:

200g ground almonds

200g softened unsalted butter

160g caster sugar

2 eggs, beaten

seeds from ¼ of a vanilla pod, or ½ tsp vanilla extract

400g ripe plums

clotted cream, crème fraiche, or ice cream to serve

Method:

Step 1

To make the pastry, pulse the flour, butter, and sugar in a processor until they look

like fine breadcrumbs. Add the egg and pulse until it comes together as a soft dough.

Add a dash of cold water if it seems to be struggling or looks too dry. Turn it out and

shape into a ball. Wrap and chill for at least an hour.

Step 2

To make the frangipane, cream the butter, sugar, and vanilla together in a mixing

bowl, until light and fluffy. Add the eggs, a little at a time, making sure the first bit is

completely incorporated before adding the next. Fold the ground almonds into the

mixture. Pop into the fridge to chill for at least 30 mins.

Step 3

Roll the pastry out into a thin circle. Then use it to line a shallow 25cm tart case. Chill

it in the fridge for at least 30 mins.

Step 4

Preheat your oven to 160°C/Gas 3. Halve and destone the plums. Arrange them

evenly in the tart tin. Dot the frangipane mix over the top (it will level itself out as it

cooks).

Step 5

Transfer to the oven to bake for 1 hour or until it is golden on the top and a skewer

comes out of the middle cleanly. It may take a little longer depending on your oven.

Leave to cool in the tin.



Best served slightly warm with cream or ice cream.