MARKET NEWS

Food & Hospitality Sector Outlook for November 2026

The Food & Hospitality sector is expected to experience positive trading conditions throughout November 2026, supported by the start of the festive season, increased consumer spending on social occasions, and growing Christmas booking activity.



However, businesses continue to operate in a challenging cost environment, with labour expenses, energy costs, and emerging food commodity volatility placing sustained pressure on margins.

Inflation rose above market estimates to reach 3.5% in September, as fuel and transport costs surged to 6.6%. This is the highest rate in nearly a year and above

the Bank of England’s 2% target.

Operational Key Risks

Labour Costs – High Risk

Labour remains the most significant operational challenge for many hospitality

operators. Wage inflation and associated employment costs continue to outpace

revenue growth, creating ongoing pressure on profitability.

Energy Costs – Medium Risk

Higher energy prices continue to affect transportation, food production, refrigeration

and processing costs. Whilst the impact has not yet fully filtered through the supply

chain, upward pressure remains likely over the coming months.

Fish & Seafood – Medium/High Risk

Whilst the overall seafood market remains mixed, several premium shellfish

categories are experiencing significant supply pressure. Warm water prawns in

particular remain challenging to source consistently due to reduced global availability

and strong international demand. Importers are reporting tighter supply positions,

extended lead times and elevated prices versus historical averages. Operators

heavily reliant on prawns should anticipate continued inflationary pressure through

the festive season and consider reviewing menu specifications or alternative species

where appropriate.

White fish markets are also showing signs of volatility, with fuel, freight and quota-

related constraints affecting availability of selected lines. Premium seafood products

are therefore expected to remain exposed to short-term price fluctuations.

Fresh Produce – High Risk

Beyond general vegetable inflation, salad crops, peppers, tomatoes and leafy

products remain vulnerable following adverse weather conditions across key

European growing regions. Supply quality and consistency may become a greater

issue than outright availability, creating challenges for menu planning and waste

management.

Dairy – Medium/High Risk

Butter, cream and cheese demand traditionally increases ahead of the Christmas

season. Combined with elevated feed, transport and energy costs, buyers should

expect selective price movements, particularly on premium and speciality dairy

products used in festive menus.

Oils & Frying Products – Medium Risk

Edible oil markets have stabilised compared with previous years but remain exposed

to global crop yields, freight costs and geopolitical uncertainty. Businesses with

significant frying operations should continue monitoring pricing and consider forward

purchasing opportunities where available.

Coffee & Cocoa – High Risk

Whilst both markets remain volatile due to weather-related supply challenges, chocolate products may see additional inflationary pressure as seasonal demand accelerates through November and December. Premium dessert and beverage ranges are most exposed.

COMMODITIES REPORT

What’s in Season in November

UK apples and pears remain key seasonal choices. We are transitioning into the

Mediterranean citrus season, with Spanish supply building across key lines.

Pomegranates are now in peak season and will remain through November and

December.

Peaches and nectarine season has now finished, and figs are nearing the end.

Cranberries are starting to arrive, and we are predicting a good quality harvest.

UK broccoli is now finished, and supply will move to Spain. January King cabbage

and Brussels sprouts are looking great. Kale and Cavolo Nero are also good options

for November.

Squash season continues with fantastic and versatile home-grown options. See our

recipe below for an easy Autumn special to add to your menu.

Conclusion

November presents a significant revenue opportunity for hospitality operators, with

festive celebrations expected to drive increased footfall and consumer spending.

While the outlook is positive, ongoing volatility in categories such as fresh vegetables, coffee and cocoa, alongside rising labour costs, may create challenges for businesses managing their food and beverage spend.

Talk to us about the many ways Connect can help drive down your purchasing costs.

Contact Connect Purchasing or call 01491 821199

Seasonal Recipe Suggestion

Creamy Squash Pasta with Crispy Sage

A comforting, creamy pasta dish perfect for autumn evenings. Packed with warming flavours, it's a delicious seasonal dish that's both simple and satisfying.

Ingredients:

4 shallots, finely sliced

3 garlic cloves, finely chopped

600g squash, peeled and coarsely grated

600ml vegetable or chicken stock

25g butter

16 sage leaves

500g pasta of your choice

150ml double cream

freshly grated nutmeg, to taste

60g toasted hazelnuts, chopped, to garnish

Parmesan, or veggie alternative

olive oil

salt & black pepper

Method:

Step 1: Put a large pan of salted water on to boil for the pasta.

Step 2: Warm 2 tablespoons of olive oil in a separate large saucepan and add the shallots with a pinch of salt. Fry the shallots gently for about 8 minutes until starting to soften.

Step 3: Add the garlic and grated squash. Cook for 4–5 minutes, stirring often, before adding the stock. Bring to a simmer and cook for about 15 minutes until the squash is completely tender.

Step 4: While the squash is cooking, put a small frying pan over a gentle heat. Melt the butter, then add the sage leaves and fry until they sizzle and start to crisp up. Remove them from the pan and keep to one side. Set the pan of butter aside as well to use later.

Step 5: Add the pasta to the boiling water and cook it according to the packet instructions while you finish the sauce.

Step 6: When the squash is tender, remove the pan from the heat and stir in the cream. Use a stick blender to blend the squash into a smooth, silky sauce. Add a dash or so of the pasta water to thin it to the desired consistency if it seems too thick. Taste and tweak the seasoning to your taste with salt, pepper and some freshly grated nutmeg.

Step 7: Drain the pasta and stir it into the sauce. Divide between shallow bowls and garnish with the hazelnuts, crispy sage leaves and a spoonful of the sage-flavoured butter. Serve with Parmesan grated over.